Valleywide, all dwellings

Actives: 55,937

Unsold: 49,542

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 6,395 (11% of actives)

Valleywide, single family dwellings

Actives: 45,872

Unsold: 40,297

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,575 (12% of actives)

Valleywide, luxury homes

Actives: 3,332

Unsold: 3,173

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 159 (5% of actives)

East Valley, all dwellings

Actives: 19,304

Unsold: 16,781

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 2,523 (13% of actives)

Analysis

At first glance, this week’s Phoenix real estate market update may look less encouraging than last week’s did.  Afterall, the number of houses for sale across Phoenix and its suburbs rose.  However, upon further evaluation, one should note that the number of houses under contract also rose by 7.5%, which caused the Valleywide supply of houses to fall to 8.7 months.  Those are two far more signficant indicators than the total inventory climbing, which only grew by less than 1%.

Within the micro-markets that we watch, there was more positive news.  The percentage of Phoenix single family homes under contract jumped to 12%, and the percentage of Phoenix East Valley houses under contract jumped to 13%.  The only other micro-market that we track, Phoenix luxury homes, did not fair quite as well.  Among luxury homes, the total inventory grew slightly, and the number of homes under contract slipped.

Valleywide, all dwellings

Actives: 55,740

Unsold: 49,791

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,949 (11% of actives)

Valleywide, single family dwellings

Actives: 45,740

Unsold: 40,549

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,191 (11% of actives)

Valleywide, luxury homes

Actives: 3,318

Unsold: 3,153

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 165 (5% of actives)

East Valley, all dwellings

Actives: 19,269

Unsold: 16,896

Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 2,373 (12% of actives)

Analysis

For the second week in a row, the number of homes for sale across Phoenix and its suburbs decreased.  Even better, this week, the number decreased by a significant 785 houses.  Also notable, the percentage of houses under contract climbed to 11%, which is an all-time high statistic since we began this Phoenix MLS Housing Inventory Update in October 2007.  87% of those houses under contract were single family homes. 

What was a 10.4 months’ supply of inventory two weeks ago is now a 9.4 months’ supply of inventory.  While that sudden drop in supply was remarkable, when you compare 9.4 months against what historically has been considered a balanced inventory of Phoenix homes for sale: 3-4 months of inventory, it becomes apparent that we still have a ways to go.

This week, the percentage of Phoenix East Valley houses under contract pulled ahead of the rest of the Valley to 12%.  This is important, because the number of houses under contract in the East Valley accounted for 40% of the total number of houses under contract throughout the Valley.  For clarification purposes, when we say East Valley in these updates, the East Valley includes all homes in Scottsdale, Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, Mesa, Queen Creek, and Apache Junction.

With the help of our partners at Equity Title Agency, of course, here below is a new monthly analysis we’re going to start making of Phoenix real estate sales.  Buyers (especially investors) can use this information to help identify smart price ranges in which to buy.  Sellers can use this information to help choose the most effective list price.  Homeowners can use this information to stay ahead of the Phoenix real estate market, in case they are planning to enter the resale market soon.

In order to makes sense of the statistics below, you will need to understand the basic parameters of the analysis.  We will track all sales during a rolling three-month period up to $500,000.  Then, we will break down the sales into $50,000 tiers.  Lastly, we will display the percentage of sales that fell within each tier and what the average Cumulative Days on Market (commonly referred to as “average selling time”) was for each tier.  Together, these two sets of data will show you which price ranges are selling in greater numbers and the fastest.  So, without further adieu…

Home Sales by Price Range from January 1, 2008 - March 31, 2008

  • 0 - $50K:  .5%
  • $50K - $100K:  4%
  • $100K - $150K:  16%
  • $150K - $200K:  26%
  • $200K - $250K:  22%
  • $250K - $300K:  13%
  • $300K - $350K:  7%
  • $350K - $400K:  6%
  • $400K - $450K:  3%
  • $450K - $500K:  2.5%
  • Cumulative Days on Market by Price Range from January 1, 2008 - March 31, 2008

  • 0 - $50K:  93 days
  • $50K - $100K:  116 days
  • $100K - $150K:  121 days
  • $150K - $200K:  120 days
  • $200K - $250K:  129 days
  • $250K - $300K:  133 days
  • $300K - $350K:  146 days
  • $350K - $400K:  149 days
  • $400K - $450K:  178 days
  • $450K - $500K:  243 days
  • Analysis

    Houses that sold between $150,000 and $250,000 accounted for 48% of the houses sold between January 1, 2008 and March 31, 2008, and sold in an average of 125 days (just over 4 months).  Houses priced between $450,000 and $500,000 took an average of 65 days (over 2 months) longer to sell than those priced between $400,000 and $450,000.

    Valleywide, all dwellings

    Actives: 56,525

    Unsold: 50,901

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,624 (10% of actives)

    Valleywide, single family dwellings

    Actives: 46,341

    Unsold: 41,438

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 4,903 (11% of actives)

    Valleywide, luxury homes

    Actives: 3,300

    Unsold: 3,144

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 156 (5% of actives)

    East Valley, all dwellings

    Actives: 19,532

    Unsold: 17,342

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 2,190 (11% of actives)

    Analysis

    Though the improvements were meager this week, there were improvements across the board!  Both the active home inventory and the unsold home inventory dropped, while the number of homes under contract rose again.  On a clear upward trend now, the number of homes under contract has consistently risen each week since the beginning January 2008.  That 10.4 months of inventory that we talked about last week is now down to 10.1.  Hey, meager it may be, but it’s another step in the right direction, and we’ll take it!  You may also want to notice that single family homes throughout Phoenix and the Phoenix suburbs are now selling at a rate of 11%, the greatest rate at which they’ve sold in the last several months. 

    With activity picking up, inventory starting to fall, and 30-year fixed loan rates averaging 5.88% (according to Freddie Mac), the Phoenix real estate market seems poised for recovery.

    Valleywide, all dwellings

    Actives: 56,541

    Unsold: 51,099

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,442 (10% of actives)

    Valleywide, single family dwellings

    Actives: 46,429

    Unsold: 41,706

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 4,723 (10% of actives)

    Valleywide, luxury homes

    Actives: 3,309

    Unsold: 3,152

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 157 (5% of actives)

    East Valley, all dwellings

    Actives: 19,562

    Unsold: 17,439

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 2,123 (11% of actives)

    Analysis

    Although there are no major market changes to report again this week, that’s not necessarily bad news.  The number of homes under contract valleywide increased again this week, and the percentage of homes under contract held at 10%.  Ideally of course, sellers would benefit more if the Phoenix housing inventory were to actually decrease.  And it looked as though the inventory was headed down during our Phoenix MLS Housing Inventory Update on March 3, 2008, but apparently it was a brief trend. 

    Looking at this from another angle, however, buyers can benefit from the increasing inventory and therefore sellers’ increasing frustration.  If you’re thinking about buying in the next year, don’t miss out on the advantages of a market like this: still favorable mortgage rates, recent drop in median home sales price, nearly 10.4 months of housing inventory…

    Valleywide, all dwellings

    Actives: 56,290

    Unsold: 50,924

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,366 (10% of actives)

    Valleywide, single family dwellings

    Actives: 46,244

    Unsold: 41,600

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 4,644 (10% of actives)

    Valleywide, luxury homes

    Actives: 3,305

    Unsold: 3,148

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 157 (5% of actives)

    East Valley, all dwellings

    Actives: 19,477

    Unsold: 17,341

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 2,136 (11% of actives)

    Analysis

    As you probably noticed, there’s a lot of the same news to report this week as there was last week.  It was positive news, though, so we’ll take “more of the same” in this case.  To show you what we mean by “positive,” this week the number of homes for sale in the Greater Phoenix Area is up by a mere .05%, while the number of homes under contract is up by 3.8%.

    Notable still is the greater percentage of Phoenix East Valley homes selling compared to the percentage of Valleywide homes selling.  An impressive 11% of East Valley homes are under contract this week!  If you look back at the Phoenix real estate market since October 2007, you’ll find that East Valley homes have been going under contract at a comparable or greater rate than the rest of the Valley.  Looking for more information on which areas within Phoenix are selling faster?  Or on which areas have seen the greatest increase in appreciation?  FOR THIS INFORMATION AND MORE, CONTACT The Hill Group TODAY!

    Valleywide, all dwellings

    Actives: 55,989

    Unsold: 50,818

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 5,171 (9% of actives)

    Valleywide, single family dwellings

    Actives: 46,000

    Unsold: 41,550

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 4,450 (10% of actives)

    Valleywide, luxury homes

    Actives: 3,277

    Unsold: 3,130

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 147 (4% of actives)

    East Valley, all dwellings

    Actives: 19,455

    Unsold: 17,418

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 2,037 (10% of actives)

    Analysis

    The number of active homes for sale in the Phoenix area did rise since last week, but so did the number of homes under contract.  So, if there’s a silver lining to this news, it’s that the number of homes under contract increased by a greater percentage than the number of active homes for sale did.

    The number of homes selling week-to-week throughout Phoenix does seem to be on a generally upward slope.  In fact, since the beginning of the year, the percentage of homes under contract out of the total number of homes for sale has increased from 5% to 9%.  Buyer activity is slowly increasing, while listing activity is slowly leveling off.

    Valleywide, all dwellings

    Actives: 55,690

    Unsold: 50,911

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 4,779 (9% of actives)

    Valleywide, single family dwellings

    Actives: 45,708

    Unsold: 41,598

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 4,110 (9% of actives)

    Valleywide, luxury homes

    Actives: 3,253

    Unsold: 3,119

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 134 (4% of actives)

    East Valley, all dwellings

    Actives: 19,366

    Unsold: 17,494

    Under Contract in the Last 30 Days: 1,872 (10% of actives)

    Analysis

    Headed in a new direction, the active Phoenix housing inventory has actually decreased since last week.  Can you believe it?  Believe it!  Going along with that trend, the number of unsold listings decreased as well.

    Not only did the total number of active listings across Phoenix decrease, the number of active listings also decreased in the micro-markets that we track, which include Single Family Homes, Luxury Homes, and East Valley Homes.  More exciting signs of a market trying to normalize!

    The person who was to become St. Patrick, the patron saint of Ireland, was born in Wales about AD 385.  His given name was Maewyn, and he almost didn’t get the job of bishop of Ireland because he lacked the required scholarship.

    Far from being a saint, until he was 16, he considered himself a pagan.  At that age, he was sold into slavery by a group of Irish marauders that raided his village.  During his captivity, he became closer to God.

    He escaped from slavery after six years and went to Gaul where he studied in the monastery under St. Germain, bishop of Auxerre for a period of twelve years.  During his training he became aware that his calling was to convert the pagans to Christianity.

    His wishes were to return to Ireland, to convert the native pagans to Christianity.  But his superiors instead appointed St. Palladius.  But two years later, Palladius transferred to Scotland.  Patrick, having adopted that Christian name earlier, was then appointed as second bishop to Ireland.

    Patrick was quite successful at winning converts.  And this fact upset the Celtic Druids.  Patrick was arrested several times, but escaped each time.  He traveled throughout Ireland, establishing monasteries across the country.  He also set up schools and churches which would aid him in his conversion of the Irish country to Christianity.

    His mission in Ireland lasted for thirty years.  After that time, Patrick retired to County Down.  He died on March 17 in AD 461.  That day has been commemorated as St. Patrick’s Day ever since.

    Much Irish folklore surrounds St. Patrick’s Day.  Not much of it is actually substantiated.

    Some of this lore includes the belief that Patrick raised people from the dead.  He also is said to have given a sermon from a hilltop that drove all the snakes from Ireland.  Of course, no snakes were ever native to Ireland, and some people think this is a metaphor for the conversion of the pagans.  Though originally a Catholic holy day, St. Patrick’s Day has evolved into more of a secular holiday.

    One traditional icon of the day is the shamrock.  And this stems from a more bona fide Irish tale that tells how Patrick used the three-leafed shamrock to explain the Trinity.  He used it in his sermons to represent how the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit could all exist as separate elements of the same entity.  His followers adopted the custom of wearing a shamrock on his feast day.

    The St. Patrick’s Day custom came to America in 1737.  That was the first year St. Patrick’s Day was publicly celebrated in this country, in Boston. 

    Today, people celebrate the day with parades, wearing of the green, and drinking beer.  One reason St. Patrick’s Day might have become so popular is that it takes place just a few days before the first day of spring.  One might say it has become the first green of spring.

    1.  Tax breaks.  The U.S. Tax Code lets you deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage, property taxes you pay, as well as some of the costs involved in buying your home.

    2.  Gains.  Over last five years (1998-2002) national home prices have increased at an average of 5.4 percent annually.  And while there’s no guarantee of appreciation, a 2001 study by the National Association of REALTORS® found that the typical homeowner has approximately $50,000 of unrealized gain in a home.

    3.  Equity.  Money paid for rent is money that you’ll never see again, but mortgage payments let you build equity ownership interest in your home.

    4.  Savings.  Building equity in your home is a ready-made savings plan.  And when you sell, you can generally take up to $250,000 ($500,000 for a married couple) as gain without owing any federal income tax.

    5.  Predictability.  Unlike rent, your mortgage payments don’t go up over the years so your housing costs may actually decline as you own the home longer.  However, keep in mind that property taxes and insurance costs will rise.

    6.  Freedom.  Homeowners can paint their walls yellow.  The home is yours.  You can decorate any way you want and be able to benefit from your investment for as long as you own the home.

    7.  Stability.  Remaining in one neighborhood for several years gives you a chance to participate in community activities, lets you and your family establish lasting friendships, and offers your children the benefit of educational continuity.

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